Maybe, but after additional human loss and the “collateral” destruction of lives and families. Everyday more people die, more destruction is wrought.
Will Russia lose?
Possible – but, again, the real losers are those fighting in Ukraine and having their lives destroyed.
Any major loss for Russia is unlikely – they do have nukes. Western powers, who seek to widen the war, are careful not to cross the line between covert and direct action, but this line is becoming more indistinct as they face a determined combatant. The use of so called “tactical” nuclear devices obliterating a “smaller” area is a possibility if Russia saw the threat as existential.
Will Putin lose support? Hard to believe – his support is increasing:
From an individual Ukrainian’s perspective what will be gained?
Russia is authoritarian and corrupt.
Ukraine is authoritarian and corrupt.
Arguably Ukraine is more corrupt than Russia.
The question I would ask is “is swapping one authoritarian corrupt ruling class with another worth the death and destruction?”
Who is feeling the impact?
Russia? The rouble has strengthened against the USD (the lower the stronger):
Before the war the rouble was around 75 to one USD (75:1)
When war was declared, and sanctions were announced, the rouble depreciated 50% (135:1)
However, the rouble has appreciated – at one stage it was 52:1. On 3 May ‘23 it has returned to its pre-war level (79:1)
Exports are higher in USD terms than before - the sanctions increased the prices Russia was getting.
Exports are being redirected to non-western aligned countries.
Imports of western goods have collapsed.
There are views that the longer-term impact will be felt due to the embargo causing component shortages. This is no doubt true, but the size of the impact is conjectural.
Obviously, there will be major lifestyle changes - the disengagement with the West appears irreversible. However, this is a change of source rather than long term scarcity.
Europe? Sanctions are history making - this may be the first time in a conflict that someone has introduced sanctions that target their own economy:
They are already experiencing problems with increased energy costs and the rationing of gas and resulting scarcity and inflation.
All facets of European industry will be affected:
Industry uses energy (largely gas) and increased costs will impact on the cost of goods
Gas is also feedstock for plastics, chemicals, fertiliser etc
European industry is relocating.
USA? The USA is doing very well economically from the war:
Arms sales are going through the roof.
Every donation of arms by western governments must be replaced, great for the arms industry.
Instability in the world also increases arm sales.
As the biggest oil producer in the world increased prices translate into increased profits.
A new opportunity has now opened for gas sales (via LPG) to Western Europe.
And the competitive nature of European industry is reduced – and some industries are looking to relocate in America.
So, the questions to ask:
Who will blink first, Western Europe or Russia?
Whose population will revolt first – West Europeans or Russians?
The USA is unlikely to blink - they win (in the short/medium term) economically from the continuation of the war and the military industrial complex benefits from the development of a new cold war.
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Ukraine - reflections April 2023, Pt 2
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Will Ukraine win?
Maybe, but after additional human loss and the “collateral” destruction of lives and families. Everyday more people die, more destruction is wrought.
Will Russia lose?
Possible – but, again, the real losers are those fighting in Ukraine and having their lives destroyed.
Any major loss for Russia is unlikely – they do have nukes. Western powers, who seek to widen the war, are careful not to cross the line between covert and direct action, but this line is becoming more indistinct as they face a determined combatant. The use of so called “tactical” nuclear devices obliterating a “smaller” area is a possibility if Russia saw the threat as existential.
Will Putin lose support? Hard to believe – his support is increasing:
Putin’s Approval Rating to April 2023: Levada-Center : Indicators:
APPROVAL OF THE GOVERNMENT to Apr 2023
From an individual Ukrainian’s perspective what will be gained?
Russia is authoritarian and corrupt.
Ukraine is authoritarian and corrupt.
Arguably Ukraine is more corrupt than Russia.
The question I would ask is “is swapping one authoritarian corrupt ruling class with another worth the death and destruction?”
Who is feeling the impact?
Russia? The rouble has strengthened against the USD (the lower the stronger):
Before the war the rouble was around 75 to one USD (75:1)
When war was declared, and sanctions were announced, the rouble depreciated 50% (135:1)
However, the rouble has appreciated – at one stage it was 52:1. On 3 May ‘23 it has returned to its pre-war level (79:1)
Exports are higher in USD terms than before - the sanctions increased the prices Russia was getting.
Exports are being redirected to non-western aligned countries.
Imports of western goods have collapsed.
There are views that the longer-term impact will be felt due to the embargo causing component shortages. This is no doubt true, but the size of the impact is conjectural.
Obviously, there will be major lifestyle changes - the disengagement with the West appears irreversible. However, this is a change of source rather than long term scarcity.
Europe? Sanctions are history making - this may be the first time in a conflict that someone has introduced sanctions that target their own economy:
They are already experiencing problems with increased energy costs and the rationing of gas and resulting scarcity and inflation.
All facets of European industry will be affected:
Industry uses energy (largely gas) and increased costs will impact on the cost of goods
Gas is also feedstock for plastics, chemicals, fertiliser etc
European industry is relocating.
USA? The USA is doing very well economically from the war:
Arms sales are going through the roof.
Every donation of arms by western governments must be replaced, great for the arms industry.
Instability in the world also increases arm sales.
As the biggest oil producer in the world increased prices translate into increased profits.
A new opportunity has now opened for gas sales (via LPG) to Western Europe.
And the competitive nature of European industry is reduced – and some industries are looking to relocate in America.
So, the questions to ask:
Who will blink first, Western Europe or Russia?
Whose population will revolt first – West Europeans or Russians?
The USA is unlikely to blink - they win (in the short/medium term) economically from the continuation of the war and the military industrial complex benefits from the development of a new cold war.