Ukraine - reflections Feb 2023
There are two YouTube presentations by American academics that, for me, give essential context for the war:
June 2015, “Why is Ukraine the West's Fault?” Prof John Mearsheimer, Co-director of International Security Policy, University of Chicago
February 2018, address to Duke Uni. by Dr. Nicolai Petro
The 2018 article that inspired the video and the book is here: The Tragedy of Ukraine. The book itself has just been revised and re-released.
My short “analysis” of the Ukraine issue is very simple – the war should not have started. I believe that the war will end with diplomacy and negotiation - the alternative will lead to WW3 and our extinction.
The sooner we have a negotiated settlement the death and destruction will end. However, are our leaders capable of the cognitive empathy necessary to achieve a lasting settlement?
I fear that there are too many “stakeholders” who have different agendas and fail to see the danger - the doomsday clock is close to midnight. I hope that realisation strikes, and negotiations happen before it is too late.
This could have happened before the war, the longer the war continues the more people will be killed or maimed, and the survivors will have their lives destroyed – the Russians will fight until they achieve their aims, the West/NATO/USA seem ready to “fight until the last Ukrainian”.
The dead will not cheer when “we” win, many more will die, lose limbs, have lives destroyed each day that “we” continue to fight. Even those that survive will have their lives ruined, they will never recover from this experience. I despair of the “experts” pontificating on Eastern Europe, reducing discussion to pop-psychology in place of analysis.
The dead lose, those with their towns destroyed lose, those with industries destroyed, and livelihoods destroyed, lose - not to mention those from other war zones that will “benefit” from the “excess” arms traded on the black market, or those millions no longer able to afford to live, even when they sell their daughters… But “we” are OK, the war is over there…
There is no good outcome for anyone from this war, it has already increased the toll on the poor, whose food and fuel prices are now out of reach – it will only exacerbate the impact of droughts and food insecurity, let alone accelerate global realignment and cause further instability and economic recession.
There are a lot of cheer-squad members, but very few watching with any scepticism. Where is the anti-war movement? The loudest voices I hear are promoting war – or “standing up for the rules-based order”. The “rules-based order” is not the UN – it is a USA construction. Note that the USA has withdrawn from many international arms agreements and human rights agreements. Its “Rules-Based Order” has no international validity - compliance is ensured by force In Biden’s Foreign Policy, What Is ‘Rules-Based Order'? - The New York Times.
The situation in Ukraine could easily escalate into a nuclear war – I guess that is one way to solve the climate crisis… The following link to a Chomsky interview is worth the read (the transcript has links) Current Affairs - Noam Chomsky on how to prevent WWIII.
Chomsky "So I’m not criticizing Zelensky; he’s an honourable person and has shown great courage. You can sympathize with his positions. But you can also pay attention to the reality of the world. And that’s what it implies. I’ll go back to what I said before: there are basically two options. One option is to pursue the policy we are now following, to quote Ambassador Freeman again, to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. And yes, we can pursue that policy with the possibility of nuclear war. Or we can face the reality that the only alternative is a diplomatic settlement, which will be ugly—it will give Putin and his narrow circle an escape hatch. It will say - here’s how you can get out without destroying Ukraine and going on to destroy the world."